These debt-funded projects create “indirect but potentially material” exposure to fiscal risk, the analysts wrote. Beyond infrastructure, governments will have to plan for labor disruptions and related social support. The IMF estimates 40% of global jobs—and 60% in advanced economies—are exposed to AI, particularly high-skill roles, potentially eroding payroll taxes while spiking demand for reskilling and safety nets.
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“The framework holds together very well,” says Cole, who previously worked at the NSA, but notes that he's been out of the government for more than a decade and isn't basing any findings on his own outdated knowledge of US hacking tools. “It looks like it was written as a whole. It doesn’t look like it was pieced together.”